A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
